The Ins and Outs of French Politics #14: Four is a crowd!
François Bayrou is the new prime minister, France's fourth this year. To get the job, he blackmailed Macron. The President had no choice but to give in, further proof that Macron's power is waning.
⏰ Different timezone
More than 68 hours after Macron promised to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours, he finally found someone willing to take the job, although the person in question had to blackmail Macron first (see below). As I speculated in the previous newsletter, François Bayrou is now the fourth French prime minister this year. Has Macron's choice definitively plunged France into chaos, as The New Yorker writes this week?
🤺Gentlemen's Agreement?
In a masterful display of political rejuvenation, Macron has appointed Bayrou—a mere three months junior to the outgoing Michel Barnier. Yet beneath this seamless transition lies a more turbulent tale. According to Le Monde, Macron's initial choice had fallen upon outgoing defence minister Sébastien Lecornu. When word of this reached Bayrou, the two titans of French politics allegedly clashed. Bayrou wielded the ultimate weapon: a threat to withdraw his support from an increasingly isolated and politically vulnerable president. Macron's swift capitulation speaks volumes—a telling sign that the presidential grip on power has weakened to a whisper. Meanwhile, the group leader of Modem, Bayrou's party, vehemently denies any suggestion of blackmail, although rumour has it that this denial was acquired at a fair price. Perhaps.
In his 46-year-long political career, François Bayrou has always presented himself as a reasonable alternative—a classic Christian Democrat from the centre. In the French political landscape, that doesn’t exactly give you a sharply defined profile, yet somehow, Bayrou managed to build the image of a bridge-builder. The son of the soil—born on a farm in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques—turned history teacher carries himself with the measured grace of the horses he rides, embodying a rural wisdom that seems increasingly rare in modern politics. He has become France's political sage, their homme de recours—the man summoned when the conventional solutions fail, much like Britain's Ken Clarke, though a bit younger and with distinctly Gallic flavour. Despite his three valiant charges at the presidency, the top prize remained elusive. In 2017, he aligned his political constellation with Macron's ascending star—a decision that would later prove consequential in the complex geometry of French politics. His relationship with Macron has since been a delicate dance of support and independence, alliance and autonomy—a partnership that some might call a mariage de raison. That explains why the President now rewards him with the premiership—though it’s very much a cadeau empoisonné.
Architect of Aspirations
Until last Friday, the day he became prime minister, François Bayrou held court as High Commissioner for the Plan, a bespoke position Macron had tailored for him in 2020 to secure his allegiance. In this role, Bayrou was tasked with 'leading and coordinating the planning and forward-looking studies carried out on behalf of the State and informing the choices made by the government on demographic, economic, social, environmental, health, technological and cultural issues.' In essence, a grand exercise in theoretical governance that produced reports without concrete commitments or results. Yesterday, François Bayrou engaged with Emmanuel Macron regarding his future government’s 'start-up architecture'. The unveiling of his new team is slated for the end of this week, mere hours before the Christmas recess.
💸 Empty pockets
From the realm of theoretical possibilities, Bayrou must now navigate the treacherous waters of economic reality. Not that he harbours any illusions: before summer, he had already sounded the alarm about the empty coffers. On Tuesday afternoon in the Assembly, Bayrou elevated the discussion, declaring that public finance 'is not just a financial or economic issue, it is a moral issue'. The gravity of the situation cannot be overstated: public debt is spiralling upward at an alarming pace. After swelling by 58.2 billion in the first quarter of this year (646 million per day), the debt ballooned by 68.9 billion in the 2nd quarter (757 million per day, half a million per second, or 60% of all debt in the EU), reaching the staggering sum of 3228.4 billion euros (112% of France's GDP compared to the UK’s 101,3% or Germany’s 63,7%). That figure has undoubtedly climbed higher since then, while most European nations have steadily reduced their public debt. The economic forecast casts long shadows: growth will be anaemic (zero per cent in Q4 2024), and unemployment will climb to 8 per cent by the end of next year. Financial markets are casting increasingly wary glances at France's fiscal turbulence. Credit agency Moody's last Saturday dealt another blow, downgrading the country from Aa2 to Aa3, impacting bond yields paid by France. The corporate sector mirrors this malaise: French shares are at a 2.5 per cent loss this year, while the Europe-wide Stoxx600 Index flourishes at 7.5 per cent gain. In a rare show of unity, the three employers' organisations and four trade unions today issued a collective plea for politicians to return to "stability, visibility and serenity". It is the season of miracles, after all—even these three wishes might find their way down France's chimney. 🎄
🏃🏽♂️Va t’en !
The ink had barely dried on Bayrou's appointment decree when the far-left faction LFI declared their intent to welcome the new premier with an immediate motion of no confidence. The Socialists, who share political quarters with LFI, are maintaining a watchful distance but have ruled out providing ministers. Marine Le Pen's RN has signalled restraint, indicating they won't table a motion of no confidence—at least for now. The political calendar has marked January 14th as the crucible: Bayrou will unveil his government plans in the Assemblée, which presents both opportunity and peril. While he may seek Parliament's confidence (though not obliged by law), it's also the moment when his opponents can formally challenge his premiership through motions of no confidence against the freshly-minted PM.
🥊 First Faux Pas
Bayrou, who moonlights as mayor of Pau, a picturesque town nestled near the Spanish border, champions the notion that French politicians should be able to juggle multiple mandates simultaneously. Once woven into the fabric of French political life, this practice is now restricted—a change Bayrou denounces as "a mistake" and seeks to reverse. His stance has provoked the ire of most political parties, who accuse him of having Pau closer to his heart than France and criticise his failure to visit the overseas department of Mayotte, recently ravaged by cyclone Chido. When confronted during his maiden question time in the Assemblée on Tuesday afternoon, Bayrou offered a defence: Macron himself will visit the island on Thursday. With an air of constitutional propriety, the premier explained that it's not customary for the President and Prime Minister to leave the national territory simultaneously. However, in his haste to appear prudent, Bayrou stumbled over a crucial detail: Mayotte, as France's 101st department, is very much part of national territory...
⛓️💥Ankle Fashion
While the media circus revolves around premiers and presidents present and future, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president-turned-regular-courthouse-visitor, continues to make headlines. Today, the Court of Cassation rejected Sarkozy's appeals. It delivered its final fashion verdict in the so-called Bismuth case: three years in prison, with two suspended and one year sporting this season's must-have accessory —an electronic ankle monitor— plus three years of ineligibility for public office. These penalties, previously gathering dust in legal limbo, will now be implemented. At the distinguished age of 69, the former president must soon make a somewhat different kind of state visit—to a sentencing judge for his electronic ankle fitting. Quite the departure from his usual taste in wrist accessories—Rolex, this is not.
👮🏻♀️Prison Mates
Like Sarkozy, the new prime minister will have to worry about the French prosecutor's office, which has appealed a corruption case in the European Parliament in which the new prime minister was a suspect. Bayrou is not the only suspect, by the way. The list of French politicians recently coming into contact with the police is impressive again this month. For instance, Marine Le Pen's confidant and regional deputy Florent de Kersauson was fined for driving without a licence, a former councillor took off for Algeria after being sentenced to 15 years imprisonment for rape, another former councillor was convicted for an offensive tweet, and a mayor in Mayotte received three years for corruption. Finally, former UDI president Jean-Christophe Lagarde was charged with fraud for allegedly fabricating a rumour that well-known political couple Raquel Garrido and Alexis Corbière exploited an undocumented cleaning lady. Lagarde himself says he does not understand why he has been charged.
🤷🏻♀️ It’s not me, it’s you
The night the cabinet fell, it became clear that the political turmoil wasn’t, of course, the President’s fault—it was yours. ‘The dissolution of Parliament was not understood,’ Macron mansplained, which, loosely translated, means: you are not the brightest star in the firmament. Or so it seems he implied. Then again, perhaps we’ve misunderstood him.
🗞FAITS DIVERS
+++ 🗳️AnneHidalgo, mayor of Paris since 2014, will not run in the next elections++++ 🚂 Since yesterday, a direct train has finally been running between the capitals of the two biggest EU countries. The trip between Paris and Berlin still takes eight hours, much to the bemusement of the Chinese, the world leaders in high-speed rail. +++👮🏻♀️Marine Le Pen has started preparations for the presidential election. In principle, this will not take place until 2027, but Le Pen is counting on early elections. She is in a hurry because on 30 March, she will hear whether she has to go to jail and will be unelectable for five years. +++
👌🏼 MERCI !
Thank you for reading and for the kind reactions you have been sending me recently. Please share this newsletter with your colleagues and/or friends interested in French politics. You can find all previous issues here. I welcome your questions and comments at news@devries.fr.
🇳🇱🇧🇪🇸🇷 This newsletter is also available in Dutch. Click here.